Decision Making: An Overview

It has been said that our destiny is not shaped by how our circumstances mold us, but by the decisions that we make to mold our circumstances. This, I have some level of certainty, is the basis for “there are [insert number here] of kinds of people in this world” pearls of wisdom. Luck is when preparation meets opportunity, driven by information, and forged by the decision-making process. As Newton once postulated, every action has an opposite but equal reaction. When you exert force onto something, that object will push back with the same amount of force, per inertia, with the excess energy that you put into the system being used to propel the object onto the trajectory that you want it to move.

In a manner of speaking, you live in an open system: You are part of a community, a larger whole, following your world-line throughout a daily routine, interacting with the world based on your innermost values and behaviors. Behaviors are extensions of values, by way of self-discipline—selective training of thoughts, words, and actions. Self discipline is a deliberate set of actions that can have linear and non-linear payoffs; one’s personal investment in self-discipline, however, is much less than the price of not having self-discipline in many circumstances.

The opposite of self-discipline, by contrast, is impulse. If rational decisions are to be strived for, decisions made impulsively are the introduction of chaos into the decision making process, enough to make them an irrational behavior. Irrational behaviors often add unnecessary entropy to a system—read, your world—and thus form the other end of the continuum from disciplined decision making as a rational, intelligent and deliberate act to the other end of being impulsive, often irrational, and lacking distinct and quality information to justify the action with.

This power of choice and free will, coupled with the other assets provided by the human mind makes it the most powerful tool in the universe. The most important thing that we can do with our minds is to make calculated and rational decision with it. There was once someone who said that the secret to engineering is not asking what more you can add to something, but that there is nothing left to take away. We can draw from this that the best decisions are made deliberately with quality information, but not too much of it. I get ahead of myself, though: Let’s re-visit this point later.

Back to the continuum for a moment: Oftentimes the most calculated of decisions can take the most time, as copious amounts of information are required for it; on the other hand, we often have very little (if any) information to support the decision that we have made, making rationality a function of the amount of information involved, right? Not necessarily. The quality of the information, along with the quantity, comprise a crucial factor in the decision making process. Oftentimes make what they feel are the best decisions, based on a good amount of information…but they are basing decisions on bad information. The cause for this can range from personal biases to disinformation.

So, to the previous point: When are the best decisions made? Bayes Theorem is a mathematical powerhouse of a formula which introduces the concept into the decision making process of re-evaluation once there is a change of the amount of information in the decision-making process. The best decisions don’t rely on the quantity of information, but the quality. While it is unlikely that a single bit of intelligence…information, as it were, could offer you the necessary impetus for you to make a decision, it’s just as possible as receiving far too much information on your required decision and thus having your judgment be clouded with too much information.

How do we attain this elegance in decision making abilities? Understanding the decision making process and experience are the best guides in this: Understanding the process allows one to comprehend the proper framework for which sound decisions are made, while experience develops what is better known as instincts. Instincts are simply our visceral reaction to data that we have seen in the past. In the hands of the logical minded person, proper instincts paired with the application of the never-ending cycle of processing decisions, achieving consistent elegant decision making will only take a matter of time.